Kalshi and Prediction Market Litigation Tracker
AskSpinner is tracking 32 live US court and regulatory matters involving Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and other prediction-market operators. Four deadlines matter most: the Second Circuit hears Kalshi's New York injunction motion on Nov. 3, the First Circuit hears Robinhood's Massachusetts appeal on Nov. 4, comments on two CFTC rules close Nov. 18, and Kalshi's Supreme Court response in New Jersey's case No. 26-299 is due Dec. 7 after the Court extended the deadline on Oct. 30.
16 Min Read
Overview
- Three Supreme Court petitions are pending: Flaherty v. KalshiEX (No. 26-299), Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer (No. 26-338) and North American Derivatives Exchange v. Nevada (No. 26-344).
- Federal appeals courts are split. The Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in New Jersey. The Ninth Circuit (Nevada) and Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee) found no preemption. The Fourth Circuit (Maryland) has not ruled. In Illinois, a federal judge entered a preliminary injunction on Oct. 30 barring the state from applying its sports-wagering licensing and related criminal provisions to covered contracts, and the state appealed to the Seventh Circuit the same day.
- The United States and the CFTC have sued at least ten states. Utah, sued on Oct. 26, is the most recent.
- Kalshi has also gone to court itself in October, suing Louisiana's Attorney General on Oct. 23 and Missouri's Attorney General and Gaming Commission on Oct. 27 to block state enforcement.
- Tribes are winning ground. The Ninth Circuit held on Sept. 16 that two California tribes are likely to succeed on IGRA claims against Kalshi, and the Seventh Circuit agreed on Oct. 27 to hear Kalshi's appeal in the Ho-Chunk Nation case.
- Outside the US, regulators in Australia, the Netherlands and Brazil have taken positions against prediction markets.
As of October 31, 2026 (Asia/Shanghai)
US cases and regulatory actions
| # | Case | Court / body | Docket | Parties | At issue | Status | Last action | Next deadline | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PML-001 | Flaherty v. KalshiEX | U.S. Supreme Court (from 3d Cir. No. 25-1922) | 26-299 | New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement officials (petitioners) v. KalshiEX LLC | Whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts New Jersey sports-wagering law as applied to Kalshi's sports event contracts | Cert petition pending; 11 amicus briefs filed | Oct. 30, 2026: Kalshi's motion for a further extension granted; response deadline extended to and including Dec. 7, 2026 | Dec. 7, 2026: Kalshi's brief in opposition due | Source |
| PML-002 | Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer | U.S. Supreme Court (from 9th Cir. No. 25-7831) | 26-338 | Robinhood Derivatives LLC (petitioner) v. Nevada Gaming Control Board officials | Preemption of Nevada gaming law as applied to sports event contracts (conditional petition) | Cert petition pending | Oct. 9, 2026: Response deadline extended | Nov. 13, 2026: Nevada's response due | Source |
| PML-003 | North American Derivatives Exchange v. Nevada | U.S. Supreme Court (from 9th Cir. No. 25-7187) | 26-344 | North American Derivatives Exchange Inc. (Crypto.com) (petitioner) v. State of Nevada ex rel. Nevada Gaming Control Board | Preemption of Nevada gaming law as applied to sports event contracts | Cert petition pending | Oct. 8, 2026: Response deadline extended from Oct. 15 to Nov. 16 | Nov. 16, 2026: Respondents' response due | Source |
| PML-004 | KalshiEX v. Assad | U.S. Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit (from D. Nev. 2:25-cv-00575) | 25-7516 | KalshiEX LLC v. Nevada Gaming Control Board members, Nevada Gaming Commission, Attorney General Aaron Ford; Nevada Resort Association (intervenor) | Whether the CEA preempts Nevada gaming law as applied to Kalshi's sports event contracts | Decided: dissolution of Kalshi's preliminary injunction affirmed in part, remanded in part (published opinion) | Aug. 28, 2026: Panel opinion filed (Judges R. Nelson, Bade, Lee) | — | Source |
| PML-005 | Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi | U.S. Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit (from N.D. Cal. 3:25-cv-06162-JSC) | 25-7504 | Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians v. Kalshi Inc., KalshiEX LLC, Robinhood Markets Inc., Robinhood Derivatives LLC | Tribal IGRA and Lanham Act claims over sports event contracts entered into from tribal lands | Decided: denial of preliminary injunction reversed in part and affirmed in part; remanded | Sep. 16, 2026: Panel opinion filed (Murguia, McKeown, Paez); panel held the tribes likely to succeed on IGRA claims as to contracts on tribal lands | — | Source |
| PML-006 | KalshiEX v. Martin | U.S. Court of Appeals, Fourth Circuit (from D. Md. 1:25-cv-01283) | 25-1892 | KalshiEX LLC v. Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission officials | Appeal of denial of preliminary injunction against Maryland gaming law | Pending; argued, no decision | Sep. 25, 2026: Kalshi letter to the court on supplemental authority (Doc. 124) | — | Source |
| PML-007 | KalshiEX v. Schuler; KalshiEX v. Orgel | U.S. Court of Appeals, Sixth Circuit (from S.D. Ohio and M.D. Tenn.) | 26-3196; 26-5235 | KalshiEX LLC v. Ohio Casino Control Commission members and Attorney General Dave Yost; Tennessee Sports Wagering Council officials | Whether the CEA preempts Ohio and Tennessee gambling laws | Decided: Ohio PI denial affirmed; Tennessee PI vacated and remanded (published opinion) | Sep. 25, 2026: Opinion (Clay, Gibbons, Bloomekatz) holding the CEA neither expressly nor impliedly preempts the states' gambling laws | — | Source |
| PML-008 | KalshiEX v. Williams | U.S. Court of Appeals, Second Circuit | 26-1835 | KalshiEX LLC v. New York State Gaming Commission officials | Appeal over New York gaming law; Kalshi's motion for an injunction pending appeal | Pending; motion referred to a three-judge panel | Jul. 29, 2026: Order denying temporary administrative relief and referring the injunction motion to a panel | Nov. 3, 2026: Argument on the injunction motion, heard in tandem with the Connecticut appeals (reported date) | Source |
| PML-009 | Robinhood Derivatives v. Campbell | U.S. Court of Appeals, First Circuit | 26-1257 | Robinhood Derivatives LLC v. Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea J. Campbell et al. | Appeal over Massachusetts enforcement against sports event contracts | Pending; set for argument | Oct. 25, 2026: Court's November session calendar entered | Nov. 4, 2026: Oral argument, Boston, 9:30 a.m. (Montecalvo, Kayatta, Neumann) | Source |
| PML-010 | Ho-Chunk Nation v. Kalshi | U.S. Court of Appeals, Seventh Circuit (from W.D. Wis. 3:25-cv-00698) | 26-8020 | Ho-Chunk Nation v. Kalshi Inc., KalshiEX LLC et al. | Tribal IGRA claim; Kalshi's petition for permission to appeal | Appeal accepted | Oct. 27, 2026: Seventh Circuit grants Kalshi permission to appeal | — | Source |
| PML-011 | United States and CFTC v. Utah | U.S. District Court, District of Utah | 2:26-cv-01055 | United States and CFTC v. State of Utah et al. | Federal suit to block Utah's civil suit and laws targeting prediction markets | Pending; no ruling | Oct. 26, 2026: Complaint filed (announced Oct. 27, CFTC release 9315-26) | — | Source |
| PML-012 | Utah v. Kalshi | Utah Third Judicial District Court, Salt Lake County | Not published | State of Utah (Attorney General Derek Brown) v. KalshiEX LLC and related entities | State gambling and public-nuisance claims | Pending | Oct. 20, 2026: Attorney General files suit and declaration of public nuisance | — | Source |
| PML-013 | KalshiEX v. Murrill | U.S. District Court, Western District of Louisiana | 1:26-cv-04476 | KalshiEX LLC v. Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill et al. | Kalshi seeks to block Louisiana enforcement as preempted | Pending; no ruling | Oct. 23, 2026: Complaint filed | — | Source |
| PML-014 | United States and CFTC v. Arizona | U.S. District Court, District of Arizona | See release | United States and CFTC v. State of Arizona and Gov. Katie Hobbs et al. | Federal suit to stop Arizona's criminal and civil enforcement against DCMs | TRO granted Apr. 10, 2026; later proceedings not confirmed from a court record | Apr. 10, 2026: TRO bars Arizona from pursuing criminal charges against DCMs | — | Source |
| PML-015 | United States and CFTC v. Connecticut | U.S. District Court, District of Connecticut | 3:26-cv-00498 | United States and CFTC v. State of Connecticut | Federal preemption suit against Connecticut enforcement | Pending | Apr. 2, 2026: Complaint filed | — | Source |
| PML-016 | United States and CFTC v. Illinois | U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois | 1:26-cv-03659 (decided together with 1:25-cv-15406 and 1:26-cv-07363) | United States and CFTC v. State of Illinois and Gov. JB Pritzker et al.; heard with Coinbase Financial Markets v. Raoul and KalshiEX v. Raoul | Federal preemption suit against Illinois licensing and criminal provisions | Preliminary injunction entered Oct. 30, 2026; Illinois has appealed to the Seventh Circuit | Oct. 30, 2026: Judge Martha M. Pacold entered the preliminary injunction in all three cases, implementing her Oct. 2 opinion. Illinois officials filed notices of appeal to the Seventh Circuit the same day, asking that the order be reversed and vacated. | — | Oct. 2 opinion (PDF) |
| PML-017 | United States and CFTC v. New York | U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York | 1:26-cv-03404 | United States and CFTC v. State of New York | Federal suit to halt New York's civil enforcement and cease-and-desist letters | Pending; PI motion undecided | Apr. 24, 2026: Complaint filed | — | Source |
| PML-018 | United States and CFTC v. Wisconsin | U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Wisconsin | See release | United States and CFTC v. State of Wisconsin | Federal suit responding to Wisconsin's civil suits against five DCMs | Pending; appeals reported at Seventh Circuit (Nos. 26-2636, 26-2675, 26-2696), not opened | Apr. 28, 2026: Complaint filed | — | Source |
| PML-019 | United States and CFTC v. Minnesota | U.S. District Court, District of Minnesota | 0:26-cv-02661 | United States and CFTC v. State of Minnesota | Challenge to Minnesota law making prediction-market operation a felony | Pending (PI reported granted July 27; not opened) | May. 19, 2026: Complaint and PI motion filed | — | Source |
| PML-020 | Rhode Island prediction-market case (CFTC intervention) | U.S. District Court, District of Rhode Island | See release | DCM plaintiff v. Rhode Island officials; CFTC moves to intervene | Preemption of Rhode Island gambling law; parallel state civil-penalty suit | Pending | May. 28, 2026: CFTC moves to intervene | — | Source |
| PML-021 | United States and CFTC v. New Mexico | U.S. District Court, District of New Mexico | 1:26-cv-01912 | United States and CFTC v. State of New Mexico | Federal suit to block New Mexico's state-court suit against Kalshi | Pending | Jun. 12, 2026: Complaint filed | — | Source |
| PML-022 | United States and CFTC v. Kentucky | U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Kentucky | 3:26-cv-00049 | United States and CFTC v. Commonwealth of Kentucky | Federal suit over Kentucky's state enforcement suits and special transaction fee | Pending; cross-motions briefed | Jun. 23, 2026: Complaint filed | Dec. 18, 2026: Oral argument, Lexington, 9 a.m. (reported date) | Source |
| PML-023 | Commonwealth v. KalshiEx | Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court | SJC-13906 | Commonwealth of Massachusetts v. KalshiEx LLC | Kalshi's appeal of a state-court preliminary injunction | Pending; no decision | Apr. 24, 2026: CFTC files amicus brief for Kalshi | — | Source |
| PML-024 | Nevada v. KalshiEX | First Judicial District Court of Nevada, Carson City | 260000050-1B | State of Nevada ex rel. Nevada Gaming Control Board v. KalshiEX LLC | State enforcement; preliminary injunction against sports, election and entertainment contracts | Injunction in force; geofencing agreement filed July 23 | Jul. 24, 2026: NGCB announces the agreement (geofence by Aug. 12 or $120,000 a day) | — | Source |
| PML-025 | Washington v. KalshiEX | King County Superior Court, Washington | 26-2-10264-3 SEA | State of Washington v. KalshiEX LLC | State gambling enforcement | Preliminary injunction in force; Kalshi ordered to geofence and stop covered markets | Aug. 12, 2026: Court sets the injunction's terms | — | Source |
| PML-026 | Nessel v. KalshiEX | Ingham County Circuit Court, Michigan | 26-1087-CZ | Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel v. KalshiEX LLC | State gambling enforcement; contempt motion over post-injunction ads | Preliminary injunction (Sept. 1) in force; contempt motion pending | Jul. 14, 2026: CFTC stays Kalshi's emergency rule change made in response to the Michigan court order | Nov. 24, 2026: Show-cause hearing on contempt (reported date) | Source |
| PML-027 | MGCB action on Polymarket US | Michigan Gaming Control Board (regulatory) | n/a | Michigan Gaming Control Board; Polymarket US | Sports event contracts offered in Michigan | Polymarket US agreed to stop | Oct. 28, 2026: MGCB announces Polymarket US will stop sports event contracts | Nov. 25, 2026: Deadline to stop | Source |
| PML-028 | NYSGC v. KalshiEX (subpoena enforcement) | New York Supreme Court, New York County | Index 454547/2026 | New York State Gaming Commission v. KalshiEX LLC | Enforcement of Gaming Commission subpoenas | Order to show cause signed | Oct. 29, 2026: Judge signs order to show cause | Dec. 14, 2026: Hearing | Source |
| PML-029 | CFTC proposed rule: Further Definition of 'Swap' (Inclusions) | CFTC rulemaking | 91 FR 66022 | CFTC | Proposed rule on whether event contracts are swaps | Comment period open | Oct. 19, 2026: Published in the Federal Register | Nov. 18, 2026: Comments close | Source |
| PML-030 | CFTC interim final rule excluding casino-style games | CFTC rulemaking | 91 FR 65969 | CFTC | Excludes casino-style gambling contracts | In effect; comment period open | Oct. 19, 2026: Effective on publication | Nov. 18, 2026: Comments close | Source |
| PML-031 | CFTC proposed rule: Event contracts involving enumerated activities (Rule 40.11) | CFTC rulemaking | 91 FR 35806 | CFTC | Framework for deciding whether gaming-related contracts are contrary to the public interest | Proposed; final rule pending | Jun. 10, 2026: Proposed rule released | — | Source |
| PML-032 | KalshiEX v. Hanaway | U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Missouri | 4:26-cv-01860 | KalshiEX LLC v. Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, Missouri Gaming Commission, Executive Director Michael A. Leara and Commissioners Jan M. Zimmerman, Kevin Spaulding, Kevin Cantwell, Sam K. Gladney and Roger Stottlemyre | Kalshi seeks to block enforcement of the Attorney General's Sept. 16 cease-and-desist letter and Missouri gambling and sports-wagering laws as preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act | Pending; no ruling (Judge Maria A. Lanahan) | Oct. 27, 2026: Complaint filed seeking a declaratory judgment and a temporary restraining order, preliminary and permanent injunction. Kalshi says the cease-and-desist deadline was extended to Oct. 30 and that the Missouri Solicitor General said on Oct. 27 the state could not agree to withhold enforcement. | — | Complaint (PDF) |
Regulators outside the US
| # | Regulator | Position | Date | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMN-001 | Australia: Australian Securities and Investments Commission | Chair Sarah Court said no prediction-market operator had applied for a licence (Senate estimates, Oct. 29); ASIC said on Oct. 30 it is not convinced retail prediction markets are in the public interest | Oct. 30, 2026 | Source |
| PMN-002 | Australia: Australian Communications and Media Authority | ISP blocking of illegal online gambling sites, including Polymarket | August 2025 | Source |
| PMN-003 | Netherlands: Kansspelautoriteit | Order subject to penalty: EUR 420,000 a week, capped at EUR 840,000, for unlicensed gambling offered to Dutch players; objection later rejected | Jan. 20, 2026 | Source |
| PMN-004 | Brazil: Ministério da Fazenda, Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas; Anatel | SPA technical note treats prediction markets as illegal fixed-odds betting; Anatel asks ISPs to block the platforms | Apr. 24, 2026 | Source |
Key dates ahead
- Nov. 3, 2026: KalshiEX v. Williams (26-1835): Argument on the injunction motion, heard in tandem with the Connecticut appeals (reported date).
- Nov. 4, 2026: Robinhood Derivatives v. Campbell (26-1257): Oral argument, Boston, 9:30 a.m. (Montecalvo, Kayatta, Neumann).
- Nov. 13, 2026: Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer (26-338): Nevada's response due.
- Nov. 16, 2026: North American Derivatives Exchange v. Nevada (26-344): Respondents' response due.
- Nov. 18, 2026: CFTC proposed rule: Further Definition of 'Swap' (Inclusions) (91 FR 66022): Comments close.
- Nov. 18, 2026: CFTC interim final rule excluding casino-style games (91 FR 65969): Comments close.
- Nov. 24, 2026: Nessel v. KalshiEX (26-1087-CZ): Show-cause hearing on contempt (reported date).
- Nov. 25, 2026: MGCB action on Polymarket US (n/a): Deadline to stop.
- Dec. 7, 2026: Flaherty v. KalshiEX (26-299): Kalshi's brief in opposition due.
- Dec. 14, 2026: NYSGC v. KalshiEX (subpoena enforcement) (Index 454547/2026): Hearing.
- Dec. 18, 2026: United States and CFTC v. Kentucky (3:26-cv-00049): Oral argument, Lexington, 9 a.m. (reported date).
What changed this update
- Third update of Oct. 31, 2026. Flaherty v. KalshiEX (No. 26-299, row PML-001): the Supreme Court on Oct. 30 granted Kalshi's motion for a further extension, so Kalshi's brief in opposition to New Jersey's petition is now due Dec. 7, 2026, instead of Nov. 9.
- Second update of Oct. 31, 2026. Added KalshiEX v. Hanaway (E.D. Mo. 4:26-cv-01860, row PML-032). Kalshi sued Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and the Missouri Gaming Commission on Oct. 27 after Hanaway's Sept. 16 cease-and-desist letter told Kalshi to stop offering sports event contracts in Missouri or obtain a state license, pay state taxes and fees and stop serving users under 21. Hanaway's office said on Sept. 18 it had sent similar letters to six operators: Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood. Kalshi asks for a declaration that the Missouri laws are preempted as applied to its exchange and for a temporary restraining order and preliminary and permanent injunctions. The court has not ruled.
- Update of Oct. 31, 2026. Oct. 30: Judge Martha M. Pacold entered the preliminary injunction in the three Illinois cases (United States v. Illinois, KalshiEX v. Raoul and Coinbase Financial Markets v. Raoul). Her Oct. 2 opinion found Illinois's sports-wagering licensing rules and the related criminal provision likely preempted as applied to the contracts at issue, and set aside the fee challenge for further briefing. Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Gov. JB Pritzker and the members and administrator of the Illinois Gaming Board filed notices of appeal to the Seventh Circuit on the same day. The Seventh Circuit already has the Wisconsin appeals and Kalshi's Ho-Chunk Nation appeal.
- Launch edition (Oct. 30, 2026).
- Oct. 29: Kalshi asked the Supreme Court for a second extension in No. 26-299, to Dec. 7. The Court has not yet acted.
- Oct. 28: Michigan regulators said Polymarket US will stop sports event contracts there by Nov. 25.
- Oct. 27: The Seventh Circuit agreed to hear Kalshi's appeal in Ho-Chunk Nation v. Kalshi.
- Oct. 26: The United States and the CFTC sued Utah, six days after Utah's Attorney General sued Kalshi in state court.
- Oct. 23: Kalshi sued Louisiana's Attorney General in the Western District of Louisiana.
- Oct. 19: Two CFTC rules were published in the Federal Register. Comments on both close Nov. 18.
Related coverage
- Kalshi's Supreme Court case: New Jersey petition and Clement's extension
- CFTC sues Utah over prediction markets
- Seventh Circuit takes Kalshi's Ho-Chunk appeal
Methodology
- Scope: live US court cases and regulatory actions over prediction markets and sports event contracts offered by CFTC-registered exchanges, plus a selection of non-US regulator positions. This is a curated tracker, not a list of every docket. Copycat suits and most pure removal and remand fights are left out. We add more each week.
- What counts: a row needs at least one primary source we opened ourselves: a court opinion, order, calendar or filing; a Supreme Court docket; or a release from a regulator or attorney general.
- Dates: "Last action" is the latest step we confirmed from the cited source. Where a next date comes only from docket summaries or the press, the row says "reported date" and the CSV marks next_date_basis = reported.
- Excluded this edition (no openable primary source): Utah's Oct. 28 criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders, since the charging document is not public; Crypto.com/Nadex v. Brown (D. Utah 2:26-cv-01056); Polymarket US v. Murrill (E.D. La. 2:26-cv-02482); the separate Missouri suits reported to have been filed by Novig and Crypto.com's Nadex on Oct. 16; Kalshi v. Cox (10th Cir.); Kalshi v. Bird (8th Cir.); Mescalero Apache Tribe et al. v. Kalshi (D.N.M.); People v. KalshiEX (S.D.N.Y. 1:26-cv-06550); the Seminole tribal suit; Underdog v. Skrmetti; and India's block of Polymarket. Montana's case was dismissed on Sept. 21 and is no longer live.
- Allegations: claims in complaints are allegations. They are attributed to the party making them, and courts have not ruled on them unless the row says so.
- Updates: weekly, and also when a court rules. Corrections: support@askspinner.com.
How to cite this page
Cite as: AskSpinner, Kalshi and Prediction Market Litigation Tracker, October 31, 2026, https://askspinner.com/news/kalshi-prediction-market-lawsuits-tracker. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813020
Download the data
The full table is available as a CSV under a CC BY 4.0 licence (attribution: AskSpinner news desk, askspinner.com). Download the CSV.
Also archived on Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813020
Image rights: if you hold rights to an image used here and want it credited differently or removed, contact support@askspinner.com.
Updated October 31, 2026: Added the Oct. 30 preliminary injunction in the Illinois cases and Illinois's appeal to the Seventh Circuit (row PML-016), Kalshi's Oct. 27 lawsuit against Missouri officials (row PML-032, overview and CSV), and the Supreme Court's Oct. 30 order moving Kalshi's response deadline in No. 26-299 to Dec. 7 (row PML-001, lead and key dates).
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Daniel Tan is an editor at AskSpinner News who believes industry writing can be informed, approachable and engaging. Daniel turns complex subjects into accessible articles and reports, giving readers a welcoming way into unfamiliar topics and room to build their understanding as they read.
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