Is Polymarket legal? How 18 jurisdictions treat prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, from Taiwan's election-betting crackdown to the US court fight

The short answer

Polymarket and Kalshi are not legal in most of the world outside the United States. Of the 18 jurisdictions below, 15 treat event contracts on elections, sports or news as gambling and have blocked, fined or opened proceedings against the platforms, or declared them illegal. Great Britain says operators would need a gambling licence as a betting intermediary. Ontario applied its ban on short-term binary options. The United States is the exception: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates these contracts as derivatives on registered exchanges, and many states are challenging that view in court.

The table and the downloadable dataset list, for each jurisdiction, the stance, the legal basis, the key enforcement action and a link to the regulator, court or legislature document behind it.

Taiwan: election bets are a crime, and the blocks now reach Kalshi and Coinbase

Taiwan is where a prediction-market bet can most clearly put an ordinary user in prison. Under Article 103-1 of the Public Officials Election and Recall Act, anyone who gambles on the result of an election or recall "by telecommunications equipment, electronic communications, the internet or other similar methods" faces up to six months in prison, detention or a fine of up to NT$100,000. Anyone who, for profit, provides a venue for such bets or gathers people to bet faces up to five years and a fine of up to NT$500,000. Article 88-1 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act uses the same wording for presidential races. Betting with items "for temporary entertainment" is excluded.

So the claim circulating this week that Taiwanese bettors "face up to 6 months in prison" is accurate as the statutory maximum. Courts can also impose detention or a fine instead.

The cases show how the law is used against Polymarket users:

• Taoyuan, January 2025. The Taoyuan District Court sentenced a man to 30 days' detention, commutable to a fine at NT$1,000 a day, for two bets placed on Jan. 3, 2024 on a Polymarket market titled "Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win?" ten days before the vote. The stakes were about 1.3 and 1,005.9 USDC. The judgment (Case 113 Tao-Jian 3070) notes he made no profit; the conviction stood anyway.
• Taichung, April 2026. The Taichung District Prosecutors Office said (archived copy) on April 17 that police, acting on a court search warrant on April 15, had identified four suspected bettors on Polymarket's "2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner" market, which settles on which party wins the most of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county-magistrate seats. Prosecutors cited Article 103-1(2) of the election law and Article 266(2) of the Criminal Code, and reminded the public that tips on election betting can earn a reward of up to NT$5 million.

Access blocking has followed. Polymarket's domain has been blocked under criminal rulings of the Miaoli and Nantou district courts, according to New Taipei police quoted by Taiwan's Central News Agency on Nov. 5. In October, the New Taipei District Court approved restrictions on Kalshi and on Coinbase, which offers prediction markets supplied by Kalshi, after an application by the Criminal Investigation Bureau, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 15. The bureau said it acted to protect election integrity and prevent "overseas interference". Kalshi told Bloomberg it does not allow trading in Taiwan. The court ruling itself has not been published, so its exact scope cannot be checked.

Taiwan votes in local elections on Nov. 28, 2026.

The United States: a federal regulator says yes, many states say no

The US is the only jurisdiction in this guide where a national regulator treats Kalshi-style contracts as lawful financial products. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market, and its election contracts survived a CFTC challenge: on May 7, 2025, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit dismissed the CFTC's own appeal at the agency's request, leaving in place a 2024 district court ruling that let Kalshi list contracts on control of Congress.

Since then the CFTC has written new rules around the market rather than against it. It issued an interim final rule excluding casino-style games from event contracts (Oct. 19, 2026), proposed a framework for contracts involving enumerated activities such as gaming (June 10, 2026), and on Nov. 5 said domestic geographic restrictions by exchanges breach its impartial-access rules. It has also sued states, including Utah, Illinois and New York, to stop them enforcing gambling law against exchanges.

The states are pushing back, mostly over sports contracts. The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi in Nevada and refused to rehear the case on Nov. 4. The Sixth Circuit held in September that federal law does not override Ohio and Tennessee gambling law. The Third Circuit went the other way in April, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to take the case. In November alone, Arkansas sued Kalshi, Polymarket US and Crypto.com's OG.com sued Arkansas, and Missouri drew suits from Polymarket US, Robinhood and others while countersuing Novig under a federal online-gambling law. Every live US case is listed in the AskSpinner prediction market litigation tracker.

Asia-Pacific

• South Korea: blocked. On Aug. 18, 2026, the Korea Media and Communications Standards Commission voted to order access to Polymarket blocked, finding it provided information for aiding gambling and opening a gambling place under the Criminal Act, and "similar acts" under the National Sports Promotion Act. Polymarket had argued it removed its Korean-language service, accepts no won and runs non-custodial, peer-to-peer trades. The commission replied that technical features "cannot be used to avoid the application of domestic law", citing markets such as August rainfall in Seoul.
• Singapore: illegal unless licensed. The Gambling Regulatory Authority says Singapore Pools is the only licensed remote gambling operator and that taking part in unlicensed remote gambling can bring a fine of up to S$10,000, six months in prison, or both. Operators face up to S$500,000 and seven years. Polymarket was reported blocked in January 2025; blocking has been handled by the Singapore Police Force since Jan. 1, 2025.
• India: blocked. A Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology advisory to VPN providers in April 2026 states that Polymarket and similar sites "have been blocked for access in India under section 69A" of the IT Act, and that the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 bans real-money online games, "including prediction market activities". India had earlier also withheld Polymarket's official social media profile.
• Australia: blocked. The Australian Communications and Media Authority asked ISPs to block Polymarket on Aug. 13, 2025 as an illegal service under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. Securities regulator ASIC has said it has received no prediction-market licence applications and is not convinced retail prediction markets are in the public interest.

Europe

• France: blocked. The ANJ's president ordered ISPs to block Polymarket on July 16, 2026. Polymarket had geoblocked France in November 2024 after the regulator intervened, but the ANJ said the measure was circumvented; the site drew 578,751 visits from France in June 2026. Advertising an unauthorised gambling site in France carries a fine of up to €100,000.
• Netherlands: penalty order. The Kansspelautoriteit imposed an order subject to penalty on Polymarket operator Adventure One QSS: €420,000 a week, up to €840,000. The regulator said such bets are not allowed on the Dutch market "even by licence holders".
• Switzerland: Polymarket and Kalshi blocked. The Gespa blocklist shows polymarket.com blocked since Nov. 26, 2024 and kalshi.com since Nov. 25, 2025, with four Swiss-themed Polymarket domains added on Aug. 25, 2026.
• Italy: Polymarket and Kalshi blocked. Both polymarket.com and kalshi.com are on the ADM list of blocked gambling sites in the version dated Oct. 13, 2026.
• Spain: sanction proceedings against both. On May 26, 2026, the consumer affairs ministry opened sanction proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi and ordered their websites blocked as a precautionary measure. The gambling regulator DGOJ said prediction markets are games of chance when users bet on uncertain future results.
• Czech Republic: both blocked. The Ministry of Finance's list of unauthorised internet games added polymarket.com on July 13, 2026 and kalshi.com on Sept. 30, 2026.
• Germany: illegal. The joint gambling authority GGL warned on Sept. 5, 2025 that bets on elections, court rulings, wars or disasters, "such as those offered on Polymarket", cannot be licensed under the 2021 Interstate Treaty on Gambling, and that offering, taking part in and advertising them are criminal.
• Romania: blacklisted. ONJN Decision 883 of Oct. 29, 2025 added polymarket.com to its blacklist of unlicensed gambling sites.
• Great Britain: a gambling licence is required. The Gambling Commission said in February 2026 that current prediction-market products would likely count as a "betting intermediary", the licence used for betting exchanges, and that operators "would not be able to classify themselves as non-gambling products". The Treasury confirmed on Sept. 8, 2026 that any prediction market would need that licence. Betting on an election with inside information has already led to criminal convictions for cheating.

The Americas outside the US

• Canada (Ontario): binary options ban. The Ontario Securities Commission settled with Polymarket's operators on April 17, 2025 for offering Ontario investors short-term binary options from June 2020 to May 2023. They accepted two-year market bans and a C$200,000 penalty.
• Brazil: illegal fixed-odds betting. The Finance Ministry's betting secretariat (SPA) concluded in Technical Note 2958/2026, signed April 23, 2026, that prediction markets on sports and other non-financial events illegally operate fixed-odds betting, and recommended blocking them. It noted that Brazil's electoral court treats election-linked betting as a potential electoral offence.
• Colombia: blocking requested. Coljuegos asked ISPs to block Polymarket on Sept. 29, 2025 and opened an inquiry, saying bets on elections are not regulated in Colombia and are therefore illegal.

Why regulators keep landing on "gambling"

Prediction-market operators make three arguments: users trade with each other rather than against a bookmaker, prices move so there are no "fixed odds", and positions can be sold before an event ends. Regulators have answered each of them. Brazil's SPA pointed out that its own rules already license betting exchanges, where users bet against each other, and allow cash-out before settlement. Spain's consumer affairs ministry notes that prediction markets are also known as "cross bets". South Korea said decentralised technology does not take a platform outside domestic law. Great Britain's regulator notes that betting exchanges have operated there since 2000 and sees no new category.

Election markets draw the hardest line. Taiwan, Germany, the Netherlands and Colombia all object specifically to bets on votes, and Taiwan and Brazil treat them as a matter of election law, not only gambling law.

Not yet in the table

Regulators in Portugal, Belgium, Poland, Greece, Hungary, Ukraine and the Philippines have also been reported to have blocked or ordered action against Polymarket, and the ANJ lists several of them among European countries that have restricted prediction markets. They will be added when the underlying order or official list entry can be linked.

Data

Download the dataset: askspinner-prediction-market-rules-by-country-v2026-11-10.csv (19 rows, 18 jurisdictions; the US has separate federal and state rows), with a README describing each column. The file has 16 columns: entry_id, jurisdiction, region, stance, regulator_or_body, legal_basis, key_action, action_date, operators_named, election_contracts, sports_contracts, primary_source_url, source_type, askspinner_link, notes and last_checked. Every row links to the regulator, court, legislature or government document behind it. Checked Nov. 10, 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: AskSpinner news desk, askspinner.com).

Updated Nov. 10, 2026: Clarified that the Supreme Court has not yet decided whether to hear New Jersey's petition (No. 26-299), and corrected the list of dataset columns, and added an archived copy of the Taichung prosecutors' release.