Brazil bill would place prediction markets under CVM supervision

A bill presented in Brazil's Chamber of Deputies on November 10, 2026, would place non-financial event derivatives — the instruments used in prediction markets — under the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM). Sports-related contracts would stay under the fixed-odds betting law.

PL 5.811/2026, signed by Deputies Gilson Marques (NOVO-SC) and Luiz Lima (NOVO-RJ), was presented to the Board of the Chamber (Mesa Diretora) at 18:17 Brasília time on November 10, according to the Câmara proposition page and the Chamber's open-data record. As of November 15, 2026, that presentation was the only movement listed. There had been no committee referral and no vote.

What the bill would regulate

Article 1 would bring under this law the offer and trading of derivatives whose underlyings relate to a real or virtual event that is not an economic-financial benchmark, "at the discretion of" the CVM.

Article 2 would allow that activity only through a platform that, at a minimum, lets participants trade positions at any time before settlement through an order book or an automated mechanism, without the platform setting prices; forms prices from the interaction of participants; and settles against an objective, previously identified source of verification.

Article 3 defines such a contract as an instrument traded in an organized market, settled on whether a future, objectively verifiable non-benchmark event occurs, with prices formed among participants, tradable before settlement, and intended to produce information or to hedge.

Article 3, paragraph 2, says a contract that meets the bill's requirements, characterized by price formation among participants and "the absence of a counterparty acting as a bookmaker" (ausência de contraparte que atue como banca), would not be treated as fixed-odds betting for the purposes of Law 14.790 of December 29, 2023. Paragraph 3 says the economic substance of the contract would matter, not the label, the technology or the trading structure used to avoid this law or Law 14.790.

Article 5 would keep contracts whose reference event is, directly or indirectly, tied to a sports competition, performance, result or any sports-related occurrence exclusively under Law 14.790. Paragraph 1 would admit, among other objectively verifiable events, those of a political-electoral, climate, scientific, technological, health, cultural, entertainment or geopolitical nature. Paragraph 2 would bar contracts whose result is subject to the "unilateral and discretionary control" of an identifiable public or private agent who can, by their own act, determine whether the reference event occurs.

The contracts and platforms covered by the bill would also fall under the derivatives framework in Law 6.385 of December 7, 1976, and other CVM rules (Article 4).

Who could trade, and what operators would have to do

Trading would be limited to natural persons. Legal persons would be barred from buying or holding positions (Article 3, paragraph 1).

Authorized operators would have to disclose fees in advance, pay amounts due into a pre-registered account tied to a verified identity, use a reputable source to verify events, keep complete and auditable records, and adopt anti-money-laundering controls, among other duties in Article 7. Identity checks would have to include, at a minimum, validation of a CPF number, verification of the account used for deposits and payouts — which may be in Brazilian currency, foreign currency, crypto-assets, tokens or similar instruments — and confirmation of the participant's civil majority (maioridade civil), "under the terms of the regulation." The bill itself does not state an 18- or 21-year age.

Article 8 would prohibit offering, intermediation or trading of these contracts outside the authorized regime and would apply the penalties in Articles 27-C to 27-F of Law 6.385, without prejudice to administrative and civil sanctions and CVM measures. Article 9 would bar a participant who holds a position on an event they can directly and decisively influence, by office, function, mandate or legal duty, from acting to alter the result artificially in order to gain from that position.

If the bill became law, Article 10 would give the CVM no fewer than 12 months for entities already in activity to adapt, "with continuity of operations assured during that period." The CVM would have 180 days from publication to issue specific rules on, among other things, capital, risk management and participant protection. Paragraph 2 would allow the CVM to recognize foreign operators authorized in jurisdictions with equivalent supervision, and to set conditions for them to act in Brazil and for residents to access their platforms. Article 12 would bring the law into force 90 days after publication. Those timelines, and the clause about continuity of operations, would apply only after enactment and publication.

Article 11 would place participants' income under the income-tax rules for organized derivatives markets, with authorized operators reporting information to the Special Secretariat of the Federal Revenue.

Current restrictions and official dates

The authors' justification, printed in the official PDF, says legal uncertainty increased after the National Monetary Council issued Resolution 5.298 of April 24, 2026, whose Article 3 barred, in Brazil, derivatives tied to sports, online games, and political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment or other events that, in the CVM's view, are not economic-financial benchmarks. That resolution remains in force. The bill has not been voted, and presenting it does not repeal the resolution or authorize platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi to operate.

The same official PDF dates the justification "Sala das Sessões, em 17 de junho de 2026" (Chamber session hall, June 17, 2026). The filing stamp on that document, and the Câmara open-data record, date the presentation as November 10, 2026, at 18:17:17.110. Those are different dates on the official text; the presentation date is November 10.

AskSpinner has previously described Brazil's treatment of prediction markets in its Kalshi and prediction market litigation tracker and in Is Polymarket legal? Prediction market rules by jurisdiction. Brazil's separate fixed-odds betting ban under Provisional Measure 1.394 is covered in Brazil Betting Ban Under Provisional Measure 1.394.